Netanyahu bloc trails rivals in polls ahead of Israel's October 27 election

Likud has been in power almost consecutively since 1977, when it toppled the Labour party that had dominated Israeli politics since independence in 1948. Likud's hegemony before Netanyahu was marked by the expansion of Jewish settlements on land that Palestinians seek for a state, a landmark peace treatise with Egypt and the 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Netanyahu, who led Likud in the 1990s and then again from 2005, forged diplomatic ties with more Arab countries in the 2020 Abraham accords and held failed peace talks with the Palestinians. His present term in office has seen Likud embrace right-wing populism with a bid to curb the powers of Israel's Supreme Court. Likud has kept up its alliance with far-right parties who have backed Netanyahu’s conduct of wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran and driven settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank. Likud’s popularity plummeted soon after the October 7 Hamas attack.

Yashar, which in Hebrew means ‘straight’ or ‘honest’, is a new party, headed by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who lost a son in Gaza. Eisenkot has projected an image as a political outsider, soldier and security hawk whose humble background and family sacrifices stand in vivid contrast to Netanyahu's decades in high office and ‌lingering corruption cases. The party has been campaigning on a platform of integrity and social cohesion, promising to pull the country out of crisis, strengthen security and return the state to its democratic foundations.

A new party formed on an old alliance between former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who jointly ousted Netanyahu in 2021. Their campaign messages have focused on healing a traumatized nation in the wake of the October 7 attack and getting the country back on track after the ensuing wars and amid Israel's growing international isolation. Bennett objects to Palestinian statehood, saying it would pose a security threat while Lapid has in the past supported it.

Led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was convicted in 2007 of racist incitement against Arabs and backing a group considered by Israel and the United States to be a terrorist organization. Under his leadership, Jewish Power authored legislation promoting capital punishment for convicted Palestinian militants. As minister, Ben-Gvir toughened prison conditions for Palestinians jailed in Israel and eased regulations on gun ownership for Israelis. He has also advocated for the expulsion of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.

Led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Religious Zionism represents Israel’s small but powerful ideological settler movement. The party advocates for the annexation of the West Bank, which they view as the biblical bedrock of the Jewish people, and resettlement of Gaza. Holding a second portfolio in Israel’s defence ministry, Smotrich has spearheaded Israel's rapid expansion of West Bank settlements, voicing his hope that it would ‘bury’ the idea of a Palestinian state.

Israel's ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties have been Netanyahu's most loyal political allies for almost two decades. But in his present term, they have been angered by his failure to deliver legislation that they have long sought, to exempt religious seminary students from service in Israel’s conscript military, in favour of full-time devotion to religious study.

Led by the hawkish former defence minister Avigdor Lieberman, Israel Our Home draws support from the country's ex-Soviet immigrant community. Lieberman, a former Netanyahu ally and now one of his staunchest critics, quit Netanyahu's government in 2018, accusing the prime minister of being too soft on Palestinian militants in Gaza.

Founded on the moribund remnants of Israel's historical Labour party and smaller left-wing Meretz, left-wing Democrats has been energized under the leadership of former general Yair Golan, hailed for his rescue of people from one of the Hamas October 7 attack sites. The party advocates for a peace agreement with the Palestinians, arguing that it is an Israeli security interest.

Israel's 21% Arab minority is represented by two lists - Raam, a historically Islamist party led by Mansour Abbas, and The Joint List, an alliance between three mainly Arab parties. In 2021, Abbas' Raam became the first Arab party to join a governing coalition in Israel's history. Both lists want to see Netanyahu ousted. Netanyahu's rivals have said they will not include Arab parties in their coalition, though polling suggests their clearest path to power could involve forming a minority government with tacit Arab support from the outside.

A new party founded by Ofer Winter, a right-wing former brigadier general who has been critical of Netanyahu but has also said he wants to be part of a right-wing coalition led by the incumbent. People of Israel wants tougher action against Hamas and incentives for Palestinians to leave Gaza. At the same time, it is aligned with main opposition parties demanding more ultra-Orthodox Jews serve in the military. Winter's party has been teetering on the vote threshold, falling below it in some polls and just passing it in others.

Led by former Netanyahu aide and minister Yoaz Hendel, the new party's main platform is expanding service in the military to include more ultra-Orthodox Jews. Hendel has joined forces with Israel's former accountant general, economist Yaron Zelekha. Their party is not clearly aligned with either camp and is also wobbling around the vote threshold.