Federal Reserve
Doves and Hawks
What U.S. Fed policymakers are saying about interest rates
Federal Reserve policymakers head to their July 28-29 meeting with one month of cooler inflation data in hand but with plenty of concern about the economic implications of renewed Middle East conflict and rapid AI investment. They are widely expected to leave the policy rate on hold on the expectation that price pressures will continue to ease. Half of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s colleagues felt in June that at least one rate hike will be needed before year end, while the other half saw no such need. Warsh has declined to give any kind of forward steer.
Here is a look at Fed officials’ recent comments, sorting them under the labels “dove” and “hawk” as shorthand for their monetary policy leanings. A dove is more focused on risks to the labor market and may be inclined to cut rates, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation and may be more open to rate hikes.
Note
The current policy rate target range is 3.50%-3.75%. The median of Fed policymaker projections in June was for just shy of a quarter-of-a-percentage point hike by the end of 2026. Warsh did not submit a rate-path projection. Nine policymakers felt one or more quarter-point rate hikes would be needed by year end; eight expected no change to the policy rate through the end of 2026; and one indicated a quarter-point rate cut would be appropriate.
Sources and voting rotation
The Fed’s seven governors are nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate. Each votes at every Federal Open Market Committee meeting, held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule. Fed bank presidents are picked by the directors of their own regional banks, subject to approval by the Fed Board. The Atlanta Fed is seeking a new president after Raphael Bostic retired in February.
Header background photo by
Dado Ruvic