Venezuela: cash-strapped gusher

How much really was Venezuela's net oil revenue in 2014?

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves, yet it is desperately short of U.S. dollars needed to import basic food and medicine as part of its socialist economic agenda. Free or subsidized shipments of crude oil to Cuba and other Caribbean nations, plus repayments in oil to China may have reduced oil revenue by as much as $24 billion last year, according to a Reuters analysis of publicly available data from the government, state-owned oil company PDVSA and the central bank. Falling oil revenues have cast doubt on Venezuela’s future ability to service its sovereign foreign currency debt payments.

GROSS REVENUE FROM OIL

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
2,785,000 bpd
Includes condensates and natural gas liquids. Source: Venezuela's Petroleum ministry "Memoria y cuenta 2014", delivered to the Congress

FUEL IMPORTS
+
130,000 bpd
Includes imports of gasoline, diesel and refining feedstock from the United States and through tenders on the open market. This does not include long-term purchase agreements from any other country other than the United States. Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), tender documents

CRUDE OIL IMPORTS
+
17,000 bpd
Includes purchases of Algeria's Saharan Blend crude and Russia's Urals crude in the last quarter of 2014. Source: PDVSA documents

TOTAL OIL INPUT
=
2,932,000 bpd

DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
576,000 bpd
Balance based on official oil production, exports and fuel purchases data.

CRUDE AND PRODUCT EXPORTS
=
2,356,000 bpd
Source: Venezuela's Petroleum ministry "Memoria y cuenta 2014", delivered to the Congress

AVERAGE EXPORT PRICE
x
$88.74
Source: Venezuela's Petroleum ministry
$76.31 billion

ESTIMATED DEDUCTIONS FROM PREVIOUS DEALS
REUTERS ESTIMATE:
ENTER YOUR OWN ESTIMATE:

CHINA
$14.55
China has loaned Venezuela more than $50 billion in badly needed hard currency since 2007, to be repaid with crude oil and product shipments. Nearly half of that amount has been paid off. Terms for the debt repayment were changed starting in the fourth quarter of 2014, implying less barrels were being sent to Beijing. This balance assumes a volume of 485,000 bpd sent in the first three quarters of 2014 and 300,000 bpd in the last quarter 2014.

CARRIBEAN REGION
$4.13
In 2005, Venezuela set up the Petrocaribe program that allows Caribbean and Latin American country members to pay cash for part of every oil shipment, and lets them finance the rest at low interest rates, or make in-kind payments with products ranging from rice to blue jeans. This balance assumes a 19% drop in volume sent to Venezuela's allies in 2014, including 77,000 bpd to Cuba. The total was 178,000 bpd in 2014 as reported in Venezuela's Petroleum ministry "Memoria y Cuenta 2014" delivered to the Congress, as well as 50% of the invoices for Petrocaribe and Acuerdo Enrgetico de Caracas being postponed under long-term financial agreements.

CRUDE OIL AND PRODUCT IMPORTS
Venezuela imports fuel and crude oil in order to mix with its heavier grade crude which is then refined by PDVSA’s refining network. This also includes refining feedstock and finished products bought by PDVSA.
$5.53

TOTAL
$24.21

RELATED EXPENSES
$1.97
Annualized oil related equipment expenses including oil rigs and services. This represents other imports different from crude and fuels projected for 2014, based on numbers reported by Venezuela’s central bank until the 3rd quarter of 2014.

NET REVENUE FROM OIL
=
$50.13 billion
Sources: PDVSA; Venezuela’s central bank; Reuters